Will Dangote Refinery Really Save Us? Or Are We Still Stuck Paying Crazy Prices for Fuel?

Nigeria, a land of paradoxes where crude oil flows freely beneath our feet, yet fuel prices are high enough to make your heart skip a beat. Just when we thought we had found our knight in shining armor—Dangote Refinery—the reality may be more complex than a simple “happily ever after.” The much-hyped local refining of crude oil promises to cut down fuel prices, but if you’re already budgeting for gas like you’re planning a wedding, don’t uncork the champagne just yet.

On September 3, 2024, Dangote Refinery started supplying petrol (PMS) to the Nigerian market. People were optimistic—finally, an end to our reliance on imported fuel! No more price hikes tied to global oil prices or the mystical fluctuations of the naira against the dollar. But then, the news broke that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) had raised the price of PMS from ₦617 to a staggering ₦897. Cue national groaning and hand-wringing.

Some Nigerians, clinging to optimism like a toddler to their favorite toy, are convinced that Dangote will save the day and bring prices down. “It’s the big men in the petroleum sector sabotaging the refinery,” some claim. “They know Dangote’s coming for their wallets.” Maybe. Or maybe, just maybe, we’re putting too much hope in a single billionaire.

The government claims the petroleum sector is deregulated—code for “We’re washing our hands off this mess. Let the market do its thing!” But despite the deregulation banner, Dangote Refinery says the market is “strictly regulated.” It’s like watching two dancers who can’t agree on the steps but keep twirling anyway. NNPCL swears they’re not buying petrol from Dangote yet, and Dangote’s people say they’re not the ones setting prices. So who is responsible? Apparently, it’s “market forces.” The same market forces that seem to enjoy tormenting Nigerians.

According to Seun Oworu, an energy expert, even with Dangote producing fuel locally, the price might only drop by 50 to 70 naira. Why? Because most of the costs that jack up fuel prices—production, crude oil prices, forex issues—still exist. It’s like cutting a tiny corner off your bill at a luxury restaurant; sure, it’s something, but you’re still going to feel the sting.

For those hoping to fill their tanks for less, here’s the cold truth: the main benefit of Dangote Refinery might not be affordability but availability. We’ll have more fuel, but at a price that will still make you wince at the pump. Economist Dr. Okey Okere warns that NNPCL will be the sole buyer of Dangote’s oil. Monopoly, anyone? The same NNPCL that, let’s be honest, has about as much efficiency as a car running on water.

Between bad roads, endless checkpoints, and trucks transporting fuel through a maze of challenges, Dr. Okere isn’t holding his breath for a major price reduction. “Inflation will still be high,” he says, almost as if he’s already predicting our sigh of frustration.

So, is Dangote Refinery a game-changer? Sure, in some ways. We might not have to scramble for forex to import fuel, and we’ll see more stability in supply. But if you’re hoping for drastically cheaper fuel, you might want to manage those expectations. Your wallet might still cry at the pump, just with a slightly less dramatic wail.